Back Into The Pool...

What a terrible year for film. If that sentiment sounds familiar, it should, it’s the exact same thing I said at the start of my Oscar post last year. 2008 was a down year overall but still had some major bright spots (Dark Knight, Wall-E, Milk, Rachel Getting Married) and a few noteworthy if not ultimately memorable movies (Gran Torino, The Wrestler, Vicky Christina). What does 2009 have? Avatar has had carnal relations with the box office, but are we going to be talking about it in 5 years? The Hurt Locker was the exception to the “Hollywood simply can’t make a good movie about Iraq” rule, had some incredible moments, but the parts were much better than the whole. District 9 was completely original, the most creative movie of the year, but it really fits the definition of “it’s a thrill just to be nominated.” Inglorious Basterds was brilliant, daring, exciting, everything you want from a suspense movie, it’s the best movie of the year, but is it a best picture?

Well, fuck it. Just because the films were underwhelming doesn’t mean we can’t still fleece our friends for cash at the Oscar party (yes, that's a double negative, but so was 2009). Good luck, hopefully we’ll have a lot more to talk about this time next year.


Best Picture
Will Win: The Hurt Locker
Should Win: Inglorious Basterds


Best Director
Will Win: James Cameron
Should Win: Quentin Tarantino

I can easily see this flipping by the way, with Avatar winning best pic and Kathryn Bigelow taking director. Regardless of how it ends up, I definitely think that the two movies will spilt these; one film won’t win both. The big question: does the Academy want Avatar to win best picture? This isn’t Titanic mind you, which was a very Oscar-friendly theme, this is a movie about nine-feet tall reptilian Smurfs with a language that sounds like Ewoks fucking. It’s Iraq v. Pandora, and I think Iraq wins. Cameron will take director as his consolation prize.


Best Actor
Will Win: Bridges
Should Win: Bridges


Best Actress
Will Win: Streep
Should Win: Streep

Sandra Bullock has been gaining some momentum lately, but I still think Streep takes this home.


Best Supporting Actor
Will Win: Waltz
Should Win: Waltz

Waltz winning this category is a lock. Also a lock: the longest, strangest acceptance speech in Oscar history (which is saying something). During his speech at the Globes, he referred to himself as a planet and Tarantino as the golden sun, and talked about how he’d been orbiting that sun for his whole life but hadn’t dared get close enough until now. What’s possible at the Oscars? I’m thinking something like this:

“52 years ago I was in my mother’s womb. Growing. Bursting with life. Taking nutrients from her fluids. But then a man appeared, a man who had the wisdom of many centuries. He mounted my mother and made love to her. Generous love. Impactful love. He entered her, navigated beyond her many tubes and channels and found me, young, vulnerable, wanting to learn but not yet knowing how. He imparted his knowledge, his passion directly into my placenta. It was this transfer, this sharing of love and creativity that brought me here. Thank you to the Academy. And to Quentin, thanks for traveling back in time and fucking my baby face.”


Best Supporting Actress
Will Win: Mo'Nique
Should Win: Who'Cares?


Best Original Screenplay
Will Win: The Hurt Locker
Should Win: Inglorious Basterds


Best Adapted Screenplay
Will Win: Up In The Air
Should Win: Up In The Air

My heart pulls for District 9 here, but Up In The Air is really an enormous achievement from a writing perspective. Three completely identifiable, three-dimensional characters, don’t underestimate how difficult that is. District 9 is the most creative, but from a pure skill standpoint Up In The Air deserves this trophy.

Good luck in your pools.



JR

And Then There Were Ten...

As I’m sure you can tell by now, Magglio and I have a much different approach to this blog. I like to research a topic, think about it all from all angles, write slowly and edit carefully. Magglio likes to just post, post, post, keep our traffic numbers up and get more and more people reading the blog so everyone will rub his ass and tell him it’s special. What does this have to do with anything? Actually nothing, but he can be a little bitch, huh?

Anyway, one of the predominant questions I’ve been getting over email and in the comments is: “hey, Jericho, why haven’t you reacted to the Oscar nominations yet?” So I’m going to do that today. Why? So you’ll rub my ass and tell me it’s special. I mean, come on, I’m obviously a bitch too, but not like Magglio, that guy’s a fucking bitch. He’s like the Brad Pitt of bitches and I’m more like Channing Tatum. I digress.

One of the craziest things about having a blog is that sometimes I can’t remember if I posted about a certain topic or just ranted about it in private to friends. For example, I fucking hate that the Oscars expanded to 10 best picture nominees (reasons why to come in a second) and have been vehemently protesting against the move since it was announced. When I got the idea for this post, I went to A&M and searched around for the entry where I railed against the new format. To my surprise, it didn’t exist. So maybe this is the first time I’m putting these thoughts to paper, but trust me when I say that nothing is new here, the Academy shit the bed and I've been angrily sleeping in it for months.

Before we get into this, a quick preface: I realize how ridiculous this looks on paper, after all is said and done the Oscars is just a fucking TV show, but it aspires and portends to be so much more and saps like me buy in. If anything, the Oscars succeed because it manages to transcend the “it’s just an award show” mentality, we care about them; we regard Oscar winners with a sense of nobility and accomplishment; in short: the Oscars matter. When they diverge from that course and do something so obviously whore-ish, it affects the validity of the whole thing. They turn it back into a TV show. Maybe that’s at the root of my frustration; we all ignored the elephant in the room and refused to pull back the curtain to see the strings; now the Academy has done that for us. Okay, I’m down from my horse, let’s break this down, here are the 3 big reasons why I hate this decision:

1. It's All About The Benjamins
They are diluting a proven process purely to boost ratings. History has proven that the numbers of viewers increase proportionate to the popularity of that year’s films. When a lot of people see and love a movie they watch the show and pull for their favorites to win. It’s no coincidence that the highest watched telecast was in 1997 (Titanic, Good Will Hunting, As Good As It Gets, cumulative box office of nominees = $1 billion). More films means = higher cumulative box office + more starts attending show = higher ratings. It’s that simple. I don’t like it, but it’s easy to dissect their logic.


2. Yeah, But What About Those Pesky Screener Things
Expanding the number of nominees doesn’t address the fundamental problem with the nomination and voting process: there is no way to verify that every member has seen every film in question. Every year, the Academy will send 25 or so movies out to its body, they watch the films and then fill out a nomination form, the votes are tallied and the nominations announced. How do we know that each member has watched every film? I honestly don’t know how they address this but it’s a major problem and adding more films to the mix seems to make this even more complicated.


3. The Fucking Blind Side? An Education? Precious? Fuck You?
Finally, and this is the biggest problem in my opinion: what if there aren’t 10 movies worth nominating? In the irony of ironies, they are introducing the new rules this year to make amends for last year when two enormously popular and successful movies were passed over (The Dark Knight and Wall-E); except for the fact that this has been a fairly underwhelming year for movies. Look at the list:

- Avatar
- The Blind Side
- District 9
- An Education
- The Hurt Locker
- Inglourious Basterds
- Precious: Based on the Novel Push by Sapphire
- A Serious Man
- Up
- Up in the Air

Other than Avatar, District 9 and Inglourious Basterds, is there anything we’ll be discussing 5 years from now? Isn’t that what a best pic is supposed to do? To illustrate this point, I did a little research and in my opinion, only 4 times in the last 20 years did we have a year good enough to validate having 10 pictures nominated.

Here they are, the films are listed in no particular order:

2005
Brokeback
Good Night and Good Luck
Capote
Munich
Walk The Line
A History of Violence
Constant Gardener
Match Point
The Squid and the Whale
The Upside of Anger


2004
Million Dollar Baby
Finding Neverland
The Aviator
Eternal Sunshine
Closer
Kinsey
The Incredibles
Before Sunset
Collateral
Man on Fire


1997
Good Will Hunting
Titanic
As Good As It Gets
LA Confidential
Boogie Nights
The Apostle
Wag The Dog
Jackie Brown
Donnie Brasco
The Game


1994
Forrest Gump
Shawshank
Pulp Fiction
Legends of the Fall
Nobody’s Fool
The Paper
The Lion King
Quiz Show
Ed Wood
Bullets Over Broadway

A few thoughts before I wind this down:
- 4 out of 20? Looking forward to batting .200 for the next few years, Academy?
- How good were 1994 and 1997? Holy shit those were good years for film.
- Yes, I don’t have the 2005 winner, Crash, on that list. That movie sucks.
- Will I watch the Oscars this year even though I just spent 1,000 words killing their new gimmick? If you don’t know answer then clearly you aren’t rubbing my ass enough. Now come on, tell me it’s special. Please.

JR

Let’s All Win Our Oscar Pools

Sorry boys, the Academy fucked ya.

OK, you've waited long enough. Let's dance. Quick run down and then a few thoughts:

Best Picture
Will Win: Slumdog
Should Win: Milk (although it really should be The Dark Knight)

Best Director
Will Win: Danny Boyle
Should Win: Gus Van Sant (this is probably the best argument of the year with two complete contrasts in style. More on this below)

Best Actor
Will Win: Penn
Should Win: Penn (Not only is he just all around better than Rourke, but the Oscars don’t want Rourke up there)

Best Actress
Will Win: Winslet
Should Win: Winslet (You know what? Pound for pound, I really think Streep was better, but it’s Kate’s year and everyone knows it)

Best Supporting Actor
Will Win: Ledger
Should Win: Ledger (My Heath thoughts are best summed up here - it’s the best performance of the year by a landslide)

Best Supporting Actress
Will Win: Cruz
Should Win: Cruz (this is always the toughest category to predict and the nominees are extremely underwhelming this year. I think Cruz wins by default)

Best Original Screenplay
Will Win: Milk
Should Win: Wall-E (Milk is fantastic, but Wall-E was the most creative, most imaginative script of the year – don’t get fooled by the lack of dialogue. Guess what? The action scenes, scenery, sounds, look and feel of the characters, yeah, the writers do that too!)

Best Adapted Screenplay
Will Win: Slumdog
Should Win: Slumdog (three things I won’t argue so don’t even bother: Dark Knight is best movie of year, Ledger gave the best performance and Slumdog is the best screenplay. End of story)

A few thoughts:
*I think the Dark Knight will win the most Oscars of any film. It’s nominated for 8; I think it wins 6 or 7. Everyone in that room knows that it should be nominated for Best Picture; this will be the consolation. In other words, if you see Dark Knight on your ballot, check it.

*On the flip side of this, I think Benjamin Button gets crushed. Make up, art direction, costume, maybe editing – I’m thinking 3-4 tops. Pretty small number for a movie nominated 13 times.

*Possible upsets:
- Rourke and Penn canceling each other out, opening door for the well-liked Frank Langella
- Not really an upset per se, but Streep might inch past Winselt for Best Actress. Some might consider Kate's performance more of a supporting role and go with Meryl.
- Best supporting actress can always surprise, would not be surprised to see Amy Adams or Marisa Tomei take this one

*Okay, so let me be the 5 billionth person to ask this: why isn't Springsteen nomintated for best song for The Wrestler? It was crazy when Eddie Vedder get shunned last year, but there's only three songs nominated this year! They snubbed him on purpose! That's like getting shot down for a hand job by the response, "I'm sorry I don't have hands." I can see your hands, biatch!

*When Crash won Best Pic in 2005, it won a total of 3 Oscars - the lowest total number of Oscars ever for a best pic winner. There’s a very good chance Slumdog ties that record this year – it’s got three awards in the bag - Picture, Director and Screenplay – and has a very good shot at two more - Cinematography and Song – but only winning three is a very real possibility.

*I don’t buy the “redemption” angle that people are saying will push Rourke to an Oscar. A great analogy to this is 1994 when a well-respected industry veteran with one Oscar already (Hanks in Forrest Gump) was up against a once-respected has-been who rejuvenated his career with a risky role in a well-regarded indie film (Travolta in Pulp Fiction). The drum was beating for Travolta but ultimately the better performance and better actor came out on top. Honestly, the nomination is the reward for guys and stories like this. I think the Academy would be much happier with Penn as a two-time winner than Rourke as the comeback kid.

*More on the director race: I think this is less of a proficiency question and much more about personal preference (which I guess every category is ultimately). If you think about it, there are two types of well-directed films: the kind where you really notice the director and the ones you don’t notice him/her at all. You think of movies like Trainspotting where the camera is moving all over the place, quick cuts, random angles, the type of movie where you are aware of the director at all times. On the other side, you have movies like Good Will Hunting; quiet, still, the movie seems to float effortlessly from scene to scene. I mention those two movies b/c they are the flagship films for each of the two nominees in question and showcase their contrasting styles perfectly. I just happen to prefer the latter style b/c I think the frenetic, fast style can sometimes overpower the actual story, which happens in Slumdog one too many times for my liking. Again, just my preference, but I’m pulling for Van Sant and Milk to take this one home.

*I need to see a few more movies – Frost/Nixon, Grand Torino, Rachel Getting Married, etc – before I can give you my top ten, but from what I’ve seen so far, four of the five best movies this year aren’t nominated: Dark Knight, Wall-E, Doubt and Vicky Christina Barcelona.

*On that note, I’m less excited for the Oscars this year than I’ve been in a long, long time. You have to go back to 1998 to find a year with weaker all around films (Shakespeare in Love, Saving Private Ryan, Life is Beautiful, Elizabeth, The Thin Red Line – I really like the first two, but neither one is a Best Pic in my view. Also, much like this year, the best movie - The Truman Show - wasn’t even nominated). With all that said, of course I’m watching every second, winning every pool I enter and just loving all the excess that is Hollywood.

Good luck in your pools. RIP Heath.

Best Actor Do Over (Part II)

Moving right along...

2000
Nominees:
Javier Bardem -- Before Night Falls
Russell Crowe -- Gladiator
Tom Hanks -- Cast Away
Ed Harris -- Pollock
Geoffrey Rush -- Quills

Did Win: Crowe
Should’ve Won: Harris

Once again, the Academy plays the political game and doesn’t reward the best performance. The voters were split between Crowe and Spacey in 1999, deciding on Spacey at the last minute but kicking themselves the whole time. So Gladiator comes out and it’s fucking awesome and he’s fucking awesome and the Academy thinks “damn it! Crowe is the real deal, we really fucked up last year – let’s just give him this one and call it even.” Obviously this logic is crazy, crazy fucked because it totally overlooks the best performance of the year: Ed Harris in Pollock. Crowe is awesome in Gladiator no doubt, but Harris is a revelation in Pollock, tortured, brilliant, endearing, appalling, a really fantastic performance.

2001
Nominees:
Russell Crowe -- A Beautiful Mind
Sean Penn -- I Am Sam
Will Smith -- Ali
Denzel Washington -- Training Day
Tom Wilkinson -- In the Bedroom

Did Win: Denzel
Should’ve Won: Crowe

Ah, so now the Academy’s lack of foresight has completely come full circle. So they wanted to give Crowe the Oscar for the Insider but didn’t, regretted that decision so threw him a conciliation Oscar for Gladiator, and then are caught with their pants down a year later when he gives the performance of his fucking life in A Beautiful Mind. Holy shit is he good in this movie. Not only that, but this is the absolute definition of an Oscar worthy role – he’s crazy, brilliant, delusional, there’s even a “thirty years later” scene where he wears heavy make up! The Academy fucking loves heavy make up! Man, they really kicked themselves in the ass with this one.

(And I know what you’re thinking, what about Denzel? Is this really the best Denzel performance? No fucking chance. Besides if I was completely redoing this thing, and not just starting from 1993 – I’d go back to 1992, take Pacino’s Oscar for Scent of a Woman and give it to its rightful owner, Denzel for Malcolm X. So there)

2002
Nominees:
Adrien Brody -- The Pianist
Nicolas Cage -- Adaptation
Michael Caine -- The Quiet American
Daniel Day-Lewis -- Gangs of New York
Jack Nicholson -- About Schmidt

Did Win: Brody
Should’ve Won: Day-Lewis

A Polish pianist (Oscar!) uses his music (Oscar!) to raise the spirits (Oscar!) of the oppressed Residents (Oscar!) in the Polish ghetto (Oscar!). In one touching scene, he’s about to be executed by the Nazi guard (Oscar!) but starts playing the piano (Oscar!) and the guard is reduced to tears (Oscar!) and lets him live (Oscar!). Nothing against Brody, who is fantastic in this movie, but don’t you think the Academy was swayed a little by the role and not the performance? What’s more, the year previously they gave the award to Denzel for playing a ruthless, vile bad guy, did they want to do that again by giving the statue to Day-Lewis for his sadistic Bill the Butcher? Well, they should have. It’s been five years, which performance do you remember more? Exactly.

(And no, this doesn’t mean I’m redistributing Day-Lewis’ Oscar this year for There Will Be Blood – the guy is the fucking best, If Neeson wasn’t so good in Schindler’s I would’ve given Day-Lewis the Oscar that year for In The Name of The Father too, which is four, what year did Last of the Mohicans come out? Fuck it, give him that one too.)

2003
Nominees:
Johnny Depp -- Pirates of the Caribbean: The Curse of the Black Pearl
Ben Kingsley -- House of Sand and Fog
Jude Law -- Cold Mountain
Bill Murray -- Lost in Translation
Sean Penn -- Mystic River

Did Win: Penn
Should’ve Won: Penn

Sean Penn won this competition handily in 2003, and he wins again handily here. I do love Murray’s performance and think it might be the pinnacle of his career, Groundhog’s Day notwithstanding, but he can’t touch Penn. He actually can’t come within a mile of Penn, the best performance of the decade by someone not named Day-Lewis.

(Also, can someone please explain to me why people consider Jude Law to be a great actor? He’s average at best. Have you seen Cold Mountain? You know what separates average actors from good actors and good actors from great actors? The ability to think without looking like you’re thinking. With Hanks you can always tell his character is thinking, with Jude you can always tell that Jude is thinking about what the character must be thinking. Does that make sense? In Cold Mountain, Jude’s face basically says “what does sad look like in the mountains?” for a solid two hours. Jude was great in Ripley, but in retrospect, doesn’t that seem like it was mostly Jude just being Jude?)

2004
Nominees:
Don Cheadle -- Hotel Rwanda
Johnny Depp -- Finding Neverland
Leonardo DiCaprio -- The Aviator
Clint Eastwood -- Million Dollar Baby
Jamie Foxx -- Ray

Did Win: Foxx
Should’ve Won: Foxx

Wow. Huge year. 5 legitimate studs, 5 fucking awesome performances. I’m tempted to go DiCaprio or Cheadle here, because I love them both and they both give their best performances so far, but I don’t think anyone can top Jamie Foxx.

2005
Nominees:
Philip Seymour Hoffman -- Capote
Terrence Howard -- Hustle & Flow
Heath Ledger -- Brokeback Mountain
Joaquin Phoenix -- Walk the Line
David Strathairn -- Good Night, and Good Luck

Did Win: Hoffman
Should Win: Phoenix

WOW! Now this is a massive, massive year with five fantastic performances, including three for the records books with Heath, Hoffman and Joaquin. Considering that this year also had Viggo in History of Violence, Ralph Fiennes in The Constant Gardener and Eric Bana in Munich, the argument could be made that this was the strongest year for male lead performances in the last 50 years and maybe ever. With that said, I’m going against the grain here a little by taking the Oscar away from Hoffman (who is lights fucking out fantastic) and giving the award to Phoenix, b/c I think his role has aged a bit better and ultimately was just more of a physical achievement. (BTW, if I write this column tomorrow I may give it to Heath, and a few days later change my mind again and give it to Viggo or Bana – 2005 is just that good).

2006
Nominees:
Leonardo DiCaprio -- Blood Diamond
Ryan Gosling -- Half Nelson
Peter O'Toole -- Venus
Will Smith -- The Pursuit of Happyness
Forest Whitaker -- The Last King of Scotland

Did Win: Whitaker
Should’ve Won: McAvoy

The strongest year for male leads is followed by one of the weakest. Honestly, there isn’t a really memorable performance on this list. Whitaker gives the best here, but to be honest, doesn’t even give the best performance in his own movie, so I’m really going against the grain here and giving the award to Forest’s co-star in the Last King of Scotland, James McAvoy. I like Forest, everyone likes Forest, and he finally found a role where his lazy eye could be used as a plot device, but I can’t get past the fact that this feels more like a lifetime achievement award than a recognition of excellence. Besides, McAvoy absolutely carries that movie from the first shot to the last, conveying more hope, intelligence and terror on his face than most actors (I’m speaking to you Mr. Law) do in a lifetime. Fantastic performance.

2007
Nominees:
George Clooney -- Michael Clayton
Daniel Day-Lewis -- There Will Be Blood
Johnny Depp -- Sweeney Todd The Demon Barber of Fleet Street
Tommy Lee Jones -- In the Valley of Elah
Viggo Mortensen -- Eastern Promises

Did Win: Day-Fucking-Lewis
Should Win: Day-Fucking-Lewis

Fun year, four of the best actors up against one of the best ever. Sorry gang, but there’s a reason people don’t like playing Michael Jordan, tackling Barry Sanders or trying to out-cunt Catherine Zeta Jones.

Best Actor Do Over (Part I)

Best Acting Oscar Do Over Part I

I caught a few minutes of Saving Private Ryan the other day and was thinking to myself, “this is by far and away Tom Hanks’ best performance.” Yes, he was fantastic in Forrest Gump, Apollo 13, Big, Cast Away and Philadelphia (look at the fucking list! What a career this guy has had – incredible), but nothing can compare to SPR. In fact, I’d go as far as to say that the scene after Giovanni Ribisi is killed and Hanks sneaks off to cry in that ravine is the best acted moment of all time (see, this is why it’s fun to have a blog – you can make bold, somewhat unfounded statements that are given some sense of validity b/c it’s in print and you idiots read it. Anyway…). Hanks didn’t win an Oscar for that role, the weird Italian dude that basically raped 16 people on the way to the podium won for Life Is Beautiful (do you ever notice how being European provides you a total get out of jail free card in the US? “He’s not an asshole, he’s just French.” “Well, my landlord probably shouldn’t take a dump in my mailbox, but what can you do? He’s Polish.” If we tried to pull that shit over there we get our asses kicked, but over here it’s a “cultural difference.” Crazy.)

Now, let’s take nothing away from the groping Italian, great performance in a great movie, but better than Tom in SPR? No fucking chance. I don’t think many people would argue that point, so why didn’t Tom take it home? Three reasons:

1) The Oscars aren’t scientific – people are asked to measure something that can’t really be measured – the wisdom of crowds plays in here and momentum and buzz can definitely swing the vote in someone’s favor
2) Great artists inevitably end up competing mostly with themselves – Hanks had already won twice, so regardless of how good he was in SPR, are they really ready to make him a three-time winner?
3) Extension of point 2, the Oscars are highly political and the best person doesn’t always win. Case in point, Hanks won the Oscar in 1993 for Philadelphia when Liam Neeson was far, far, far superior in Schindler’s List. However, Hanks was an industry favorite who’d been around forever and stretched his range considerably with Philadelphia; that equals an Oscar nine times out of ten, regardless of merit. This gets the Oscars into trouble sometimes though, flash forward to 1998, Hanks should’ve won for SPR, but they can’t give it to him b/c they already gave him one five years ago for a lesser role. And round and round and round it goes…

With that said, let’s take a look back at every best acting Oscar from the last 15 years (starting in 1993 and moving forward), take the politics out of it and redistribute the Oscars accordingly.


1993
Nominees:
Daniel Day-Lewis -- In the Name of the Father
Laurence Fishburne -- What's Love Got to Do with It
Tom Hanks -- Philadelphia
Anthony Hopkins -- The Remains of the Day
Liam Neeson -- Schindler's List

Did Win: Hanks
Should’ve Won: Neeson

Liam in a landslide. When was the last time you watched Schindler’s List? I own this movie and try to throw it in once a year or so, an incredible experience from start to finish that is absolutely carried by Liam. Lots of good performances on this list including the aforementioned Hanks who is absolutely fantastic, but no one can top Liam this year.

(Also, side note, let’s take Hopkins off the list (when he was in his prime Lecter, “nominate me or I’ll fucking eat your face bones” phase and give Bill Murray in Groundhog’s Day the final nomination. Thanks)

1994
Nominees:
Morgan Freeman -- The Shawshank Redemption
Tom Hanks -- Forrest Gump
Nigel Hawthorne -- The Madness of King George
Paul Newman -- Nobody's Fool
John Travolta -- Pulp Fiction

Did Win: Hanks
Should’ve Won: Hanks

Crazy, crazy year, with three of the most rewatchable movie of all time - Pulp, Shawshank and Forrest - all up for best pic (little did TBS know how much cash they’d one day make from the 1994 movie year). My heart pulls a little to Freeman, whose performance gets better and better as the years go on, but Hanks rightfully wins this one. A perfect movie for Hanks to win his first Oscar – has an actor in history ever been able to move back and forth between comedy and drama as well as him? This performance is the absolute apex of that.

1995
Nominees:
Nicolas Cage -- Leaving Las Vegas
Richard Dreyfuss -- Mr. Holland's Opus
Anthony Hopkins -- Nixon
Sean Penn -- Dead Man Walking
Massimo Troisi -- Il Postino

Did Win: Cage
Should’ve Won: Cage

I can’t stand Cage’s head and am tempted to give this to Penn, but I know how much better he was in Mystic River so am fine waiting a few years and besides, Cage really does knock this role out of the park. I’m always wary of roles that scream “Oscar!” – b/c I think the Academy has a tendency to reward the role over the performance sometimes (this peaked in 1999 when Hilary Swank won for Boys Don’t Cry over the far superior Annette Bening in American Beauty) – however, Cage is worthy here, eliciting empathy and disdain in equal measure.

(Also, side tangent, Mr. Holland’s Opus is one of the dumbest movies of all time – I hate, hate, HATE this movie. I can’t believe Dreyfuss got nominated for this cheesy pile of drool. Really? He’s better than Hanks in Apollo 13? Better than Morgan Freeman in Seven? Better than Denzel in Crimson Tide? Better than Pacino or De Niro in Heat? Or De Niro again in Casino? What a fucking stupid nomination.)

1996
Nominees:
Tom Cruise -- Jerry Maguire
Ralph Fiennes -- The English Patient
Woody Harrelson -- The People vs. Larry Flynt
Geoffrey Rush -- Shine
Billy Bob Thornton -- Sling Blade

Did Win: Rush
Should’ve Won: Rush

Strange year, strange films, none of them particularly memorable, good performances on this list but nothing earth shattering. I still think Rush should win even though his performance is more of a supporting role.

1997
Nominees:
Matt Damon -- Good Will Hunting
Robert Duvall -- The Apostle
Peter Fonda -- Ulee's Gold
Dustin Hoffman -- Wag the Dog
Jack Nicholson -- As Good as It Gets

Did Win: Jack
Should’ve Won: Duvall

Now this is a powerhouse year; 4 legends and 1 upstart who has since proven to be one of the best in his generation. As great as Jack was in this movie and in every movie for that matter, this performance hasn’t aged as well as it should have. Parts of the movie seem a bit contrived and the chemistry between him and Hunt falls flat at times. On the other side, you have Duvall, who gives one of the most electric, intense, complicated performances in the last 15 years. Dark, driven, manic, he’s off his fucking ass in this movie.

1998
Nominees:
Roberto Benigni -- Life Is Beautiful
Tom Hanks -- Saving Private Ryan
Ian McKellen -- Gods and Monsters
Nick Nolte -- Affliction
Edward Norton -- American History X

Did Win: Benigni
Should’ve Won: Hanks

Now, with everything I’ve said about Hanks you’d think this would’ve been an easy call, but its actually one of the more difficult due to the absolute brilliance of Norton in American History X. An absolute transformation, it’s one of those performances that are so good it forever changes the way you look at the actor, once someone has scared you that much, like Hopkins in Lambs, a piece of that role always stays with you – do you know what I mean? Anyway, Norton is fucking fantastic and Benigni, even though he proved to be an annoying little homunculus after he won, is devastating in Life, but Hanks is just too good in Ryan. He deservingly gets his second Oscar.

1999
Nominees:
Russell Crowe -- The Insider
Richard Farnsworth -- The Straight Story
Sean Penn -- Sweet and Lowdown
Kevin Spacey -- American Beauty
Denzel Washington -- The Hurricane

Did Win: Spacey
Should’ve Won: Spacey

This is another tough one, I didn’t like the Insider when I saw it for the first time, but caught it again recently and was totally blown away by how brilliant Crowe is in this movie. He’s such a fucking dickwad that we forget how ridiculously talented he is, and he’s lights out here. Penn is also incredible in Lowdown, a criminally underrated performance in a criminally underrated movie. However, we’ve got career-defining performances for these two gentlemen coming up in a few years, so I’m comfortable skipping them here. Spacey is brilliant in American Beauty, another movie that has aged fantastically well. I tend to undervalue his performance in this movie sometimes b/c I really feel that Annette Bening is the heart and soul of the film and the fact that she didn’t win (losing to Swank as I mentioned above) somehow rubbed off on my appraisal of Spacey’s performance (does this make sense or do I need help?) Anyway, Spacey is picture perfect in this movie – honestly he doesn’t even need to appear on screen, his narration is so good and tells you so much about the character that he’d win the Oscar just for that.

Coming Tomorrow: Part II

10 Thoughts on the Oscars

1.
Solid all around show, good opening monologue, good speeches, nothing really memorable but entertaining throughout. Solid B+

2.
Anyone who is calling Actress and Best Supporting Actress upsets hasn’t seen those two performances. La Vie En Rose was just ok, but Marion Cottilard absolutely killed that role, a total 100% transformation. I haven’t seen Away From Her so I’m a bit biased, but I can’t see anyone being better than Cottilard, might be the best performance I saw all year.

Best Supporting Actress is always the most difficult category to call, I was personally pulling for Amy Ryan in Gone Baby Gone, but Tilda Swinton was incredible in Michael Clayton. On a side note, how fucking weird is Tilda Swinton? Seriously. You know how we often refer to great actors as “chameleons?” – well Tilda Swinton is a chameleon… literally. Would anyone be surprised if it was revealed that she lays eggs? Me neither.

3.
I take back my earlier comments about Eddie Vedder not being nominated for best song. After seeing the three whimsical Enchanted songs and the uplifting, touching choir number from August Rush, I don’t think Eddie was robbed at all, he had a good song, a great song, but he was way out of his league last night.



(Are you fucking kidding me!?!?)

4.
Once! Yes, yes, yes! I honestly yelled out loud when they won. I’m telling you, see this movie please, I don’t ask much. If you rent it and don’t love it Magglio will blow you. I promise.

5.
The most ridiculous thing about the Oscars is how strict they are about the acceptance speeches yet bore us with fifteen minute long montages, a fact that Jon Stewart skewered brilliantly with the binoculars and periscopes skit. You have to love that the Oscars are billed as a night to award the best in film, when really the Oscars are about celebrating the Oscars.

6.
The best part about Diablo Cody is that even though she’s the hot new thing and an Oscar winner, she’ll still blow you for $15. You have to respect that.

7.
Did you know that George Clooney sweats courage and that every time he smiles a child dreams of peace in French even if they don’t speak French? What’s up with his chick? Why does she always look like she’s trying to read a sign that’s too far away?

8.
Do you realize that all of the acting trophies went to foreigners last night? Javier = Spain. Cotillard = France. Swinton = England. Day-Lewis = wherever the fuck he wants.

9.
Really happy with all of the awards last night, some really deserving people won. I would rather have Michael Clayton for screenplay over Juno, and PT over the Coens for directing, but you really can’t complain with how everything worked out. See ya next year.

10.
And just for fun, since we’ve officially wrapped up the movie year, here’s my updated and final top 10 list:

1. No Country
2. There Will Be Blood
3. Michael Clayton
4. Sweeney Todd
5. Once
6. Gone Baby Gone
7. Eastern Promises
8. Atonement
9. Juno
10. Bourne Ultimatum

5 Things the Oscars Screwed Up

1. Joe Wright not getting nominated for best director

I’ve said this before, but Atonement is far and away the best-directed movie of the year. The tone, pacing, dual story lines, mood are all perfect, I feel like the movie is better than the story, if that makes sense, which is a 100% tribute to the director. Here’s something I’ve never understood, how can a movie be nominated but not the director? Aren’t they synonymous with each other? When you acknowledge a movie as one of the 5 best of the year, aren’t you also saying it was one of the 5 best-directed movies too? Isn't that like saying "I loved the dinner but don't think the chef did a very good job?" I can see a very character-driven movie not getting a director nod, but Atonement is purely driven by the story. They say that directing a movie is having to make 1,000 decisions at once, well every decision Wright makes is spot on here, he got robbed.

2. Tommy Lee Jones not being nominated for best supporting actor

You’ve got to be fucking kidding me with this one. Honestly, Jones’ performance in No Country For Old Men is not only the best performance of the year; it’s one of the best in the last 10 years. OK, maybe that’s a little melodramatic but he nailed every single nuance of the role, carries the movie and totally cements and at the same time redefines his tough guy image. Now, Jones did get nominated for best actor for The Valley of Elah, which I haven’t seen and heard he’s great in, and the academy may have given him this nod to make up for the supporting snub, but either way you slice it, this is a major crime.

3. Eddie Vedder not being nominated for best song

Please look at the best song nominees. 3 songs from Enchanted! Are you fucking kidding me? Does anything sum up the “70 yr old white guy” theme of the Oscars better than this category? Enchanted!? 3?!?! What a fucking joke. Honestly, I love the Oscars and of course will watch every second of the ceremony, but I think this serves as a major blow to its credibility. God forbid they have a politically outspoken rocker performing, he might say something controversial. Oh fucking no! Fuck Enchanted.

4. Helena Bonham Carter not being nominated for best actress

Here’s one of the biggest problems with the Oscars, there’s no way to know if the academy members have seen all of the nominated films. One of the side effects of this is that often times a role and not the performance itself will be nominated and sometimes win. Look at 1999, when Boys Don’t Cry’s Hilary Swank won best actress over American Beauty’s Annette Benning, in one of the dumbest Oscar wins of all time. Hilary was incredible of course, but she was playing a transvestite, of course she won! This year we’ve got Queen Elizabeth, a woman trying to reconcile with her family before dementia takes over, a drug addicted French singer from the 30s, a woman caring for her dying father and a pregnant teenager. All great performances but also all very Oscar-ish roles, not to take anything away from any of the women nominated, but I’ve seen Laura Linney and Ellen Page’s movies and neither of them was as good as Carter. She is able to make a despicable character likable, which seems like more of an accomplishment than what Page and Linney have done.

5. Knocked Up not being nominated for best original screenplay

Wait, explain to me again how Juno was better written than Knocked Up? Sure these movies are unfairly compared because they have similar themes (which is kind of like comparing Jerry Maguire to The Last Boy Scout because they both revolve around football), but that’s what happens in arbitrarily picked contests. Juno was great but weren’t there a few moments when you said, “ok, ok, that’s clever, but no one talks like that?” You didn’t do that once in Knocked Up, right? Doesn’t that count for something. Screenplay is a funny category; it’s tough for comedies to be nominated especially more straight-laced comedies like Knocked Up. You have to be a little zany and off the wall like Juno or Little Miss Sunshine to get some love here and I think that’s dumb. There should be room for both of these scripts.

And, to be fair, 5 nominations I loved:

1. Johnny Depp for best actor, Sweeney Todd
2. Amy Ryan for best supporting actress, Gone Baby Gone
3. Once for best original song
4. Atonement for best adapted screenplay
5. Ratatouille for best original screenplay

Apples and Moustaches’ Entirely Too Early Oscar Nominations Predictions

Best Picture
Atonement
Charlie Wilson’s War
No Country For Old Men
Juno
There Will Be Blood

Atonement, No Country For Old Men and Charlie Wilson’s War are absolute shoo-ins, the other two spots are tougher to predict. The Academy loves to nominate one “little film that could” and Juno definitely fits that profile (although I’m secretly pulling for Once, it’s fucking fantastic, see this immediately. Seriously) and also one “I know this is a good film but I don’t really understand it so I’m going to just assume that it’s really, really good and nominate it” film, and There Will Be Blood fits that bill perfectly.

Potential Dark Horse: Michael Clayton, Sweeney Todd

My favorite that won’t make it: Once, Gone Baby Gone


Best Director
Coen Brothers, No Country For Old Men
Joe Wright, Atonement
Paul Thomas Anderson, There Will Be Blood
Tim Burton, Sweeney Todd
Sean Penn, In The Wild

In the old days, the best pic noms and the director noms always matched, this has shifted the last few years and now usually features:
3-4 directors of best pic noms (Wright who is the real deal, The Coens who everyone loves and PTA, the wunderkind who comes back firing after a few quiet years)
1 extremely talented director who made a great film that not everybody liked (Burton)
1 Academy favorite (enter Sean Penn, plus the Academy loves actors who direct)

Potential Dark Horse: Tony Gilroy, Michael Clayton

My favorite that won’t make it: (Marc Forster, The Kite Runner, my favorite director right now so I’m biased)


Best Actor
Daniel Day-Lewis, There Will Be Blood
Tom Hanks, Charlie Wilson’s War
George Clooney, Michael Clayton
James McAvoy, Atonement
Denzel Washington, American Gangster

Some big, big names and a hot-shot newcomer head this list. It’s gotten to the point now that as soon as Daniel Day-Lewis says, “Yes, I’ll do that” he’s instantly nominated. He’s that good and picks projects that well. (My favorite Day-Lewis story, did you know that it took Leo and Scorsese months to even find him when they wanted him to be in “Gangs of New York?” Apparently, he had retired from acting all together and was living in a tiny town on the coast of Ireland making shoes. Isn’t that amazing?) Hanks is back in his first Oscar-worthy role in a while so definitely count him in. Oscar stalwarts Clooney and Denzel are in big, showy roles that the Academy loves, and McAvoy announced himself in a big way with Atonement. Crowded category, Hanks, Clooney, Denzel and Day-Lewis have 6 Oscars between them, get ready for a dearth of “the most Oscars ever in a group of nominees!” stories.

Potential Dark Horse: Viggo Mortensen, Eastern Promises, Johnny Depp, Sweeney Todd, Emille Hirsch, Into the Wild

My favorite that won’t make it: Casey Affleck, Gone Baby Gone


Best Actress
Kiera Knightley, Atonement
Julie Christie, After Her
Ellen Page, Juno
Laura Linney, The Savages
Marion Cotillard, La Vie En Rose

Kiera Knightley in a period piece = nomination. Julie Christie is an Oscar stalwart that hasn’t been heard from in a few years, the Academy loves that. Everyone will love Juno and rave about the “amazing cast,” Page will ride that wave to her first nomination. Linney is an industry favorite who’s never won and Cotillard got rave reviews playing a drug addicted singer, which next to slaves and retards always = nominations.

Potential Dark Horse: Cate Blanchett, Elizabeth II, Angelina Jolie, A Mighty Heart

My favorite that won’t make it: Katherine Heigl, Knocked Up


Best Supporting Actor
Tommy Lee Jones, No Country For Old Men
Javier Bardem, No Country For Old Men
Phillip Seymour Hoffman, Charlie Wilson’s War
Casey Affleck, Jesse James
Tom Wilkinson, Michael Clayton

First three are easy to predict, lots of buzz around their roles, 2 Oscars and a bunch of nominations between the three already, count them in. The Academy will be torn on Casey, wanting to give him a best actor nom for Gone Baby Gone but not sure who to bump from the top five, they’ll give him this as a consolation. Not sure about the fifth spot, but my feeling is a lot of people wanted Wilkinson to win the best actor prize a few years back for “In the Bedroom” and will throw him this one to make up for it.

Potential Dark Horse: Hal Holbrook, Into the Wild, Phillip Seymour Hoffman, The Savages

My favorite that won’t make it: Homayoun Ershadi, The Kite Runner


Best Supporting Actress
Cate Blanchett, I’m Not There
Vanessa Redgrave, Atonement
Julia Roberts, Charlie Wilson’s War
Amy Ryan, Gone Baby Gone
Tilda Swinton, Michael Clayton

This is always the weirdest, most surprising and hardest to predict category. The first three are in stone, even though I hear Julia’s only in the movie for about 8 minutes, the second two are harder to predict, but I defy anyone to show me a better performance than Amy Ryan in Gone Baby Gone, she’s incredible.

Potential Dark Horse: Saoirse Ronan, Atonement

My favorite that won’t make it: Kelly Macdonald, No Country For Old Men


Best Original Screenplay
I’m Not There
The Savages
Michael Clayton
Juno
Knocked Up

I think the top four are definite, not sure about the last one, but the Academy will want to somehow honor one of the most original and successful (never underestimate Box Office success in the nomination process) movies of the year.

Potential Dark Horse: Once

My favorite that won’t make it: Shooter (oh fuck off, this movie ruled! Any script that names its hero Bob Lee Swagger gets a nom in my book).


Best Adapted Screenplay
Atonement
No Country For Old Men
There Will Be Blood
Into The Wild
Charlie Wilson’s War

The only potential surprise would be American Gangster knocking Into the Wild off the list, other than that this list is set.

Potential Dark Horse: American Gangster

My favorite that won’t make it: Zodiac (remember this one?), Gone Baby Gone