1.
Movie: The Kingdom
Prediction: $21 million
2.
Movie: The Game Plan
Prediction: $14 million
3.
Movie: Resident Evil 3
Prediction: $9 million
4.
Movie: Good Luck Chuck
Prediction: $8 million
5.
Movie: Feast of Love
Prediction: $5 million
6.
Movie: 3:10 to Yuma
Prediction: $4 million
7.
Movie: The Brave One
Prediction: $4.5 million
*Every Friday and Monday Apples and Moustaches predicts and publishes box office returns. Jericho Royall bases all of his predictions on his lifelong fascination with bad movies and stupid people and how the combination of the two directly affects the weekly box office. Apples and Moustaches Box Office Report, (aka AMBOR): Because it’s pretty incredible how much the bottom line is affected by people who can’t spell the bottom line.
Friday, September 28, 2007
Thursday, September 27, 2007
Guess whose back?
Like O.J., Brett Favre and Elton John’s sick fetishes…I’m back at it and ready to make some noise. Fresh from a 3 week sabbatical my mind is as clear as Joe Simpson’s sick perversions. So let’s get to it...
From a fantasy perspective, rookie running backs in the NFL are so hard to predict. Who knew that 3rd round pick Frank Gore would rumble to become the most successful back in his 2005 draft class after being picked behind Ronnie Brown, Cadillac, JJ Arrington and Eric Shelton (wtf?) And who knew that Ki-Jana Carter would go from the number 1 pick overall to nothing more than a funny punch line to a 4th grade genital joke?
Every year I take a chance on a rookie running back, and every year I’m left with either a gigantic man crush that continues throughout a player’s career or I’m left with a bench stacked with ‘coulda beens’. Let’s explore some of my picks, the good and the bad. Note: The round in which I drafted the player is noted in the parenthetical.
1990: Blair Thomas (3rd round)
Yes, this is what started it all. Blair Thomas was a can’t miss college prospect. All the rage. He turned out to be crap. 600 yards and 1 measely touchdown? I decided not to take another rookie that year, Emmitt Smith. 900 yards and 11 TDs later, Emmitt was well on his way to becoming a fantasy legend.
1994: Errict Rhett (4th round)
2000: Jamal Lewis (4th Round):
I wanted Ja-Lew and I got Ja-Lew. Fourth round sounded a bit early at the time, but it turned out to be a fantastic pick. Ja-Lew rumbled for over 1,300 yards and 6tds in his initial campaign. And though I only had him one other year, I have been a big fan of his ever since.
2004: Steven Jackson (early 3rd Round):
I stretched for this pick. My man crush developed in college for Steven Jackson and was only solidified when he went to the Rams. Not because I like the Rams (I can’t stand them) but because he was joining such a high powered offense. It seemed too good to be true. Well, Marshall Faulk didn’t relinquish his starting role and
2006: Jerious Norwood & DeAngelo Williams (8th and 13th rounds)
I went for it in 2006. I was feeling like I knew something. Warrick Dunn was bound to break in half (right?) and DeShaun Foster was so sketchy - it seemed like a no brainer. Sure, I passed on guys like Maurice Jones-Drew, Laurence Maroney and Joseph Addai, but I thought I knew something. I’ll get to the point. I didn’t know anything.
What have I learned? Nothing. This year I drafted Adrian Peterson (decent) and have recently picked up Brian Leonard (it’s hard to trust this much hype) and Selvin Young (look it up.)
Stay tuned. And get ready Darren McFadden…I like how you run.
Tuesday, September 25, 2007
Box Office Results: 9/21/07
1.
Movie: Resident Evil 3
Prediction: $18 million
Actual: $23.5 million (rank: 1)
Nerds! Never underestimate the value of nerd money!
2.
Movie: Good Luck Chuck
Prediction: $12 million
Actual: $13.5 million (rank: 2)
Alba! Never underestimate the drawing power of Alba in underwear. Did you know that Alba’s been in 7 movies and her average opening weekend is over $25 million? Crazy huh?
3.
Movie: The Brave One
Prediction: $8 million
Actual: $7 million (rank 3)
Close enough.
4.
Movie: Sydney White
Prediction: $7.5 million
Actual: $5 million (rank 6)
Whatever.
5.
Movie: 3:10 to Yuma
Prediction: $6 million
Actual: $6 million (rank 4)
Cool.
6.
Movie: Mr. Woodcock
Prediction: $5 million
Actual: $5 million (rank 7)
Sweet.
7.
Movie: Superbad
Prediction: $3 million
Actual: $3 million (rank 8)
Nice.
Movie: Eastern Promises
Prediction: N/A
Actual: $5.5 million (rank #5)
Whoops. Totally chucked this one and forgot this was expanding to 1,500 screens last weekend.
Movie: Resident Evil 3
Prediction: $18 million
Actual: $23.5 million (rank: 1)
Nerds! Never underestimate the value of nerd money!
2.
Movie: Good Luck Chuck
Prediction: $12 million
Actual: $13.5 million (rank: 2)
Alba! Never underestimate the drawing power of Alba in underwear. Did you know that Alba’s been in 7 movies and her average opening weekend is over $25 million? Crazy huh?
3.
Movie: The Brave One
Prediction: $8 million
Actual: $7 million (rank 3)
Close enough.
4.
Movie: Sydney White
Prediction: $7.5 million
Actual: $5 million (rank 6)
Whatever.
5.
Movie: 3:10 to Yuma
Prediction: $6 million
Actual: $6 million (rank 4)
Cool.
6.
Movie: Mr. Woodcock
Prediction: $5 million
Actual: $5 million (rank 7)
Sweet.
7.
Movie: Superbad
Prediction: $3 million
Actual: $3 million (rank 8)
Nice.
Movie: Eastern Promises
Prediction: N/A
Actual: $5.5 million (rank #5)
Whoops. Totally chucked this one and forgot this was expanding to 1,500 screens last weekend.
Monday, September 24, 2007
The Football Hangover: 9/24/07
1.
I think last night’s Bears / Cowboys game told you everything you need to know about those two QBs, namely: Romo is the real deal and Grossman needs to be benched. Not only is Romo a great athlete, but he has amazing field prescience, scrambles with his head up, and has a great feel for where his receivers are at all times. He’s the real deal and is only going to get better. On the other side, Grossman looked awful again, that’s to be expected, but it’s getting worse. It’s one thing for Grossman to affect the confidence of the offense, but now he’s affecting the confidence of the entire team. The defense isn’t playing as hard b/c they know the offense has no chance of coming back. If they get down by 7 or 10 points the game is over and they know it, Rex starts forcing passes, the D is on the field for way too long and a 7 point lead becomes 21 in a matter of minutes. Griese probably isn’t the answer, but the Bears have to make the change right now. Rex has lost that team.
2.
The Patriots are so good it’s starting to get ridiculous. Tom Brady is playing out of his fucking mind right now. Incredible. Is it too late to switch my MVP guess?
3.
So Roger Goodell will suspend a player for two games for farting loudly and not saying “excuse me” but teams can wear fugly throw back unis whenever they want? That makes no sense to me at all.
4.
I told you to keep your eyes on four teams this year: Denver, Pitt, The Pack and the Cowboys. The combined record of the four: 11-1. You’re very welcome.
5.
I told you to keep away from four teams this year: The Giants, Vikings, Jags and Chiefs. The combined record of the four: 5-7. You’re sorta welcome.
6.
Sean Alexander Watch:
The Bet: 1500 yards and 15 tds
Season So Far: 275 yards and 2 tds
Projection: 1465 yards and 11 tds
I think last night’s Bears / Cowboys game told you everything you need to know about those two QBs, namely: Romo is the real deal and Grossman needs to be benched. Not only is Romo a great athlete, but he has amazing field prescience, scrambles with his head up, and has a great feel for where his receivers are at all times. He’s the real deal and is only going to get better. On the other side, Grossman looked awful again, that’s to be expected, but it’s getting worse. It’s one thing for Grossman to affect the confidence of the offense, but now he’s affecting the confidence of the entire team. The defense isn’t playing as hard b/c they know the offense has no chance of coming back. If they get down by 7 or 10 points the game is over and they know it, Rex starts forcing passes, the D is on the field for way too long and a 7 point lead becomes 21 in a matter of minutes. Griese probably isn’t the answer, but the Bears have to make the change right now. Rex has lost that team.
2.
The Patriots are so good it’s starting to get ridiculous. Tom Brady is playing out of his fucking mind right now. Incredible. Is it too late to switch my MVP guess?
3.
So Roger Goodell will suspend a player for two games for farting loudly and not saying “excuse me” but teams can wear fugly throw back unis whenever they want? That makes no sense to me at all.
4.
I told you to keep your eyes on four teams this year: Denver, Pitt, The Pack and the Cowboys. The combined record of the four: 11-1. You’re very welcome.
5.
I told you to keep away from four teams this year: The Giants, Vikings, Jags and Chiefs. The combined record of the four: 5-7. You’re sorta welcome.
6.
Sean Alexander Watch:
The Bet: 1500 yards and 15 tds
Season So Far: 275 yards and 2 tds
Projection: 1465 yards and 11 tds
Thursday, September 20, 2007
Box Office Prediction: 9/21/07
1.
Movie: Resident Evil 3
Prediction: $18 million
2.
Movie: Good Luck Chuck
Prediction: $12 million
3.
Movie: The Brave One
Prediction: $8 million
4.
Movie: Sydney White
Prediction: $7.5 million
5.
Movie: 3:10 to Yuma
Prediction: $6 million
6.
Movie: Mr. Woodcock
Prediction: $5 million
7.
Movie: Superbad
Prediction: $3 million
*Every Friday and Monday Apples and Moustaches predicts and publishes box office returns. Jericho Royall bases all of his predictions on his lifelong fascination with bad movies and stupid people and how the combination of the two directly affects the weekly box office. Apples and Moustaches Box Office Report, (aka AMBOR): Because it’s pretty incredible how much the bottom line is affected by people who can’t spell the bottom line.
Movie: Resident Evil 3
Prediction: $18 million
2.
Movie: Good Luck Chuck
Prediction: $12 million
3.
Movie: The Brave One
Prediction: $8 million
4.
Movie: Sydney White
Prediction: $7.5 million
5.
Movie: 3:10 to Yuma
Prediction: $6 million
6.
Movie: Mr. Woodcock
Prediction: $5 million
7.
Movie: Superbad
Prediction: $3 million
*Every Friday and Monday Apples and Moustaches predicts and publishes box office returns. Jericho Royall bases all of his predictions on his lifelong fascination with bad movies and stupid people and how the combination of the two directly affects the weekly box office. Apples and Moustaches Box Office Report, (aka AMBOR): Because it’s pretty incredible how much the bottom line is affected by people who can’t spell the bottom line.
Summer Box Office Review
With the first day of fall tomorrow, let’s officially wrap up the summer movie season by taking a look at the biggest winners and losers of the period. Please note, we’re dealing only with production budgets and domestic grosses, this list would look a lot different if we added marketing to the budget and international grosses to the grand total. Also, we’re counting the summer season as movies that opened between May 1 and August 31.
All told, summer 2007 was a monster year with 4 movies crossing the $300 million mark (Spidey 3, Shrek 3, Pirates 3 and Transformers) and a fifth (Harry Potter 5) missing the mark by $10 million. All in all, 17 movies crossed the coveted $100 million marker (although with inflation and other terms I don’t understand, we may have to raise the bar to $150).
Who made and lost money in the States this summer, let’s take a look:
8 Biggest Winners:
1.
Transformers
Gross: $312 million
Budget: $150 million
Net: $162 million
2.
Shrek 3
Gross: $321 million
Budget: $160 million
Net: $161 million
3.
Harry Potter 5
Gross: $290 million
Budget: $150 million
Net: $140 million
4.
Knocked Up
Gross: $150 million
Budget: $30 million
Net: $120 million
5.
Simpsons
Gross: $180 million
Budget: $75 million
Net: $105 million
6.
Bourne 3
Gross: $215 million
Budget: $110 million
Net: $105 million
7.
Superbad
Gross: $115 million
Budget: $20 million
Net: $95 million
8.
Spiderman 3
Gross: $336 million
Budget: $258 million
Net: $78 million
5 Biggest Losers:
1.
Evan Almighty
Gross: $100 million
Budget: $175 million
Net: -$75 million
2.
Stardust
Gross: $30 million
Budget: $70 million
Net: -$40 million
3.
Rush Hour 3
Gross: $135 million (as of time of print)
Budget: $140 million
Net: -$5 million
4.
Fantastic Four 2
Gross: $131 million
Budget: $130 million
Net: $1 million
5.
Pirates 3
Gross: $308 million
Budget: $300 million
Net: $8 million
All told, summer 2007 was a monster year with 4 movies crossing the $300 million mark (Spidey 3, Shrek 3, Pirates 3 and Transformers) and a fifth (Harry Potter 5) missing the mark by $10 million. All in all, 17 movies crossed the coveted $100 million marker (although with inflation and other terms I don’t understand, we may have to raise the bar to $150).
Who made and lost money in the States this summer, let’s take a look:
8 Biggest Winners:
1.
Transformers
Gross: $312 million
Budget: $150 million
Net: $162 million
2.
Shrek 3
Gross: $321 million
Budget: $160 million
Net: $161 million
3.
Harry Potter 5
Gross: $290 million
Budget: $150 million
Net: $140 million
4.
Knocked Up
Gross: $150 million
Budget: $30 million
Net: $120 million
5.
Simpsons
Gross: $180 million
Budget: $75 million
Net: $105 million
6.
Bourne 3
Gross: $215 million
Budget: $110 million
Net: $105 million
7.
Superbad
Gross: $115 million
Budget: $20 million
Net: $95 million
8.
Spiderman 3
Gross: $336 million
Budget: $258 million
Net: $78 million
5 Biggest Losers:
1.
Evan Almighty
Gross: $100 million
Budget: $175 million
Net: -$75 million
2.
Stardust
Gross: $30 million
Budget: $70 million
Net: -$40 million
3.
Rush Hour 3
Gross: $135 million (as of time of print)
Budget: $140 million
Net: -$5 million
4.
Fantastic Four 2
Gross: $131 million
Budget: $130 million
Net: $1 million
5.
Pirates 3
Gross: $308 million
Budget: $300 million
Net: $8 million
Wednesday, September 19, 2007
Box Office Results: 9/14/07
1.
Movie: Mr. Woodcock
Prediction: $10 million
Actual: $8.7 million (rank #3)
Honestly how funny is the premise of this movie and how dumb do the trailers look? This should have been the first movie to not have a trailer, just advertise with a poster that lists the plot and the cast and that’s it. I like everyone in this movie and have absolutely no plans to see it.
2.
Movie: 3:10 to Yuma
Prediction: $9 million
Actual: $9 million (rank #2)
Anyone seen this? Any good? Did you see that Russell Crowe gave a speech to the Michigan football team before they played Notre Dame? How weird is that? I wonder what character he was when he gave the speech? Did Bud White try to convince the squad that Notre Dame was a bunch of wife beaters? Did he stick a pillow under his shirt and have Jeffrey Wigand pretend that Notre Dame was poisoning the world with their cigarettes, called Jesattes? Or (hopefully) did he throw on the John Nash makeup and scribble plays on the window all while muttering incoherently to himself about a little girl? One can only hope…
3.
Movie: The Brave One
Prediction: $8.5 million
Actual: $13.5 million (rank# 1)
Well, after her last three movies we now know that lesbians like to see Jodie trapped in a small room (Panic Room), going bat shit on a plane (Flight Plan), and tracking down bank robbers (Inside Man). After a pretty solid opening for this movie, we know lesbians like to see Jodie get revenge too. Cool.
4.
Movie: Superbad
Prediction: $5 million
Actual: $5.1 million (rank# 4)
$111 million and counting, I’m not even mad, that’s amazing. How did you do that?
5.
Movie: Halloween
Prediction: $4.5 million
Actual: $4.8 million (rank# 6)
Sure.
6.
Movie: Bourne 3
Prediction: $3.5 million
Actual: $4 million (rank# 7)
Keep’s on trucking.
7.
Movie: Dragon Wars
Prediction: $3 million
Actual: $5 million (rank # 5)
Who cares?
*Every Friday and Monday Apples and Moustaches predicts and publishes box office returns. Jericho Royall bases all of his predictions on his lifelong fascination with bad movies and stupid people and how the combination of the two directly affects the weekly box office. Apples and Moustaches Box Office Report, (aka AMBOR): Because it’s pretty incredible how much the bottom line is affected by people who can’t spell the bottom line.
Movie: Mr. Woodcock
Prediction: $10 million
Actual: $8.7 million (rank #3)
Honestly how funny is the premise of this movie and how dumb do the trailers look? This should have been the first movie to not have a trailer, just advertise with a poster that lists the plot and the cast and that’s it. I like everyone in this movie and have absolutely no plans to see it.
2.
Movie: 3:10 to Yuma
Prediction: $9 million
Actual: $9 million (rank #2)
Anyone seen this? Any good? Did you see that Russell Crowe gave a speech to the Michigan football team before they played Notre Dame? How weird is that? I wonder what character he was when he gave the speech? Did Bud White try to convince the squad that Notre Dame was a bunch of wife beaters? Did he stick a pillow under his shirt and have Jeffrey Wigand pretend that Notre Dame was poisoning the world with their cigarettes, called Jesattes? Or (hopefully) did he throw on the John Nash makeup and scribble plays on the window all while muttering incoherently to himself about a little girl? One can only hope…
3.
Movie: The Brave One
Prediction: $8.5 million
Actual: $13.5 million (rank# 1)
Well, after her last three movies we now know that lesbians like to see Jodie trapped in a small room (Panic Room), going bat shit on a plane (Flight Plan), and tracking down bank robbers (Inside Man). After a pretty solid opening for this movie, we know lesbians like to see Jodie get revenge too. Cool.
4.
Movie: Superbad
Prediction: $5 million
Actual: $5.1 million (rank# 4)
$111 million and counting, I’m not even mad, that’s amazing. How did you do that?
5.
Movie: Halloween
Prediction: $4.5 million
Actual: $4.8 million (rank# 6)
Sure.
6.
Movie: Bourne 3
Prediction: $3.5 million
Actual: $4 million (rank# 7)
Keep’s on trucking.
7.
Movie: Dragon Wars
Prediction: $3 million
Actual: $5 million (rank # 5)
Who cares?
*Every Friday and Monday Apples and Moustaches predicts and publishes box office returns. Jericho Royall bases all of his predictions on his lifelong fascination with bad movies and stupid people and how the combination of the two directly affects the weekly box office. Apples and Moustaches Box Office Report, (aka AMBOR): Because it’s pretty incredible how much the bottom line is affected by people who can’t spell the bottom line.
Monday, September 17, 2007
The Football Hangover
1.
Honestly is there a worse feeling than leaving a bunch of points on your fantasy bench? I picked up Chris Brown this week and started him over Ja Lew and sat in horror / depression / actual physical pain and watched Ja Lew rip off his best day in four years while Chris Brown crapped in his hand and rubbed it on his face for 60 minutes. Is there a real-life equivalent that can compare with this?
2.
The Saints are a mess and Sean Payton is the early leader for the “crappiest coaching job of the year” award. The shit show in NO is a perfect example of a head coach thinking way too much in the off season, drawing up way too many crazy plays and forgetting what made everything tick last season. The engine that drives that offense is not Brees, Bush or Colston, it’s Duece. Last year they used the power running game to set up the screen, or halfback swing or play action bomb, this year they’re skipping the Duece part and just trying to go straight for the homerun. Duece is averaging 4.5 yards a carry this year, but has only averaged 10 carries a game. That’s just dumb. They need to use Bush as a decoy to start games and pound the ball straight ahead with Duece, sustain a few long drives and open up the playbook from there. I’m not giving up on the Saints yet, but Payton needs to wake the fuck up.
3.
The prediction I made in my AFC preview about the Pats has already been proven true, just in a much different way than anyone could have guessed. I wrote:
“Something about the Pats feels a little wrong this season. I don’t know why, but all of the money they spent and talent they acquired just feels a little too much like the Yankees this decade. Remember how those great Yankee teams always had a few unsung heroes and once they really opened up the checkbook things started to fall apart? Something about this Pats team is reminiscent of that. Plus, and I know this sounds crazy, but I feel like Belichick is getting bored. I still think they’re one of the top 3 teams in the league, but I don’t think they make the Super Bowl.”
I was right in that something felt a little off about this team, I just didn’t predict what the “wrong” would be. After two weeks of the season, it’s painfully obvious that the Pats are the best team in the league by a wide, wide margin. They have more talent than anyone, better coaches and schemes than anyone, and a crappier division than anyone (which helps A LOT). But the spying scandal is going to haunt them this year. Football is luck, you need bounces, you need your key guys to stay healthy and you need the other team to fuck up in crucial moments. During the Pats’ Super Bowl years everything, and I mean everything, went their way. They fucked with the Football Gods this year and I think it comes back to get them in the playoffs.
4.
I told you to keep your eyes on four teams this year: Denver, Pitt, The Pack and the Cowboys. The combined record of the four: 8-0. You’re welcome.
5.
I told you to keep away from four teams this year: The Giants, Vikings, Jags and Chiefs. The combined record of the four: 2-6. You’re welcome.
6.
Sean Alexander Watch:
The Bet: 1500 yards and 15 tds
Season So Far: 175 yards and 2 tds
Projection: 1400 yards and 16 tds
Friday, September 14, 2007
Box Office Prediction: 9/14/07
1.
Movie: Mr. Woodcock
Prediction: $10 million
2.
Movie: 3:10 to Yuma
Prediction: $9 million
3.
Movie: The Brave One
Prediction: $8.5 million
4.
Movie: Superbad
Prediction: $5 million
5.
Movie: Halloween
Prediction: $4.5 million
6.
Movie: Bourne 3
Prediction: $3.5 million
7.
Movie: Dragon Wars
Prediction: $3 million
*Every Friday and Monday Apples and Moustaches predicts and publishes box office returns. Jericho Royall bases all of his predictions on his lifelong fascination with bad movies and stupid people and how the combination of the two directly affects the weekly box office. Apples and Moustaches Box Office Report, (aka AMBOR): Because it’s pretty incredible how much the bottom line is affected by people who can’t spell the bottom line.
Movie: Mr. Woodcock
Prediction: $10 million
2.
Movie: 3:10 to Yuma
Prediction: $9 million
3.
Movie: The Brave One
Prediction: $8.5 million
4.
Movie: Superbad
Prediction: $5 million
5.
Movie: Halloween
Prediction: $4.5 million
6.
Movie: Bourne 3
Prediction: $3.5 million
7.
Movie: Dragon Wars
Prediction: $3 million
*Every Friday and Monday Apples and Moustaches predicts and publishes box office returns. Jericho Royall bases all of his predictions on his lifelong fascination with bad movies and stupid people and how the combination of the two directly affects the weekly box office. Apples and Moustaches Box Office Report, (aka AMBOR): Because it’s pretty incredible how much the bottom line is affected by people who can’t spell the bottom line.
Tuesday, September 11, 2007
Box Office Results: 9/7/07
1.
Movie: 3:10 to Yuma
Prediction: $17 million
Actual: $14 million (rank: 1)
Westerns and horror movies = who fucking knows. I feel good about this.
2.
Movie: Halloween
Prediction: $13.5 million
Actual: $9.5 million (rank: 2)
64% drop – say what you want, but that’s massive.
3.
Movie: Superbad
Prediction: $9 million
Actual: $7.5 million (rank: 3)
This movie keeps chugging right along, $103 million and counting. Incredible.
4.
Movie: Shoot ‘Em Up
Prediction: $7.5 million
Actual: $5.7 million (rank: 4)
This week’s “why they fuck did they make this? Who the fuck wants to see this? And why do good actors sign up for these crap fests?” movie.
5.
Movie: Bourne 3
Prediction: $7 million
Actual: $5.67 million (rank: 5)
$210 domestic with another $100 worldwide, huge, huge hit.
6.
Movie: Balls of Fury
Prediction: $5 million
Actual: $5.65 million (rank: 6)
Whatever.
7.
Movie: Brothers Solomon
Prediction: $5 million
Actual: $.5 million (rank: 24! 24!)
$500,000. $500,000! What the fuck?!?!?
Movie: 3:10 to Yuma
Prediction: $17 million
Actual: $14 million (rank: 1)
Westerns and horror movies = who fucking knows. I feel good about this.
2.
Movie: Halloween
Prediction: $13.5 million
Actual: $9.5 million (rank: 2)
64% drop – say what you want, but that’s massive.
3.
Movie: Superbad
Prediction: $9 million
Actual: $7.5 million (rank: 3)
This movie keeps chugging right along, $103 million and counting. Incredible.
4.
Movie: Shoot ‘Em Up
Prediction: $7.5 million
Actual: $5.7 million (rank: 4)
This week’s “why they fuck did they make this? Who the fuck wants to see this? And why do good actors sign up for these crap fests?” movie.
5.
Movie: Bourne 3
Prediction: $7 million
Actual: $5.67 million (rank: 5)
$210 domestic with another $100 worldwide, huge, huge hit.
6.
Movie: Balls of Fury
Prediction: $5 million
Actual: $5.65 million (rank: 6)
Whatever.
7.
Movie: Brothers Solomon
Prediction: $5 million
Actual: $.5 million (rank: 24! 24!)
$500,000. $500,000! What the fuck?!?!?
Thursday, September 6, 2007
Apples & Moustaches' NFL Preview: The NFC
NFC East
1. Cowboys: 11-5
2. Eagles: 10-6
3. Giants: 7-9
4. Redskins: 5-11
NFC North
1. Bears: 11-5
2. Packers: 9-7
3. Lions: 6-10
4. Vikings: 3-13
NFC South
1. Saints: 13-3
2. Panthers: 8-8
3. Bucs: 6-10
4. Falcons: 5-11
NFC West
1. Seahawks: 12-4
2. Niners: 8-8
3. Rams: 8-8
4. Cardinals: 7-9
Playoff Seeds
1. Saints
2. Seahawks
3. Bears
4. Cowboys
5. Eagles
6. Packers
Wild Card
Bears over Packers
Eagles over Cowboys
Divisional
Seahawks over Eagles
Saints over Bears
AFC Championship
Saints over Seahawks
1. Cowboys: 11-5
2. Eagles: 10-6
3. Giants: 7-9
4. Redskins: 5-11
NFC North
1. Bears: 11-5
2. Packers: 9-7
3. Lions: 6-10
4. Vikings: 3-13
NFC South
1. Saints: 13-3
2. Panthers: 8-8
3. Bucs: 6-10
4. Falcons: 5-11
NFC West
1. Seahawks: 12-4
2. Niners: 8-8
3. Rams: 8-8
4. Cardinals: 7-9
Playoff Seeds
1. Saints
2. Seahawks
3. Bears
4. Cowboys
5. Eagles
6. Packers
Wild Card
Bears over Packers
Eagles over Cowboys
Divisional
Seahawks over Eagles
Saints over Bears
AFC Championship
Saints over Seahawks
10 random AFC thoughts
1.
The NFC West is the toughest division to predict so far, all four teams have tons of potential; all four teams have serious doubts.
Seattle: still the most talented team from top to bottom, but are they too old?
San Francisco: have made major strides last two years and had a great off season, but are the young guys ready to take this to the next level? Can they handle the pressure of going from perpetual underdog to the team everyone likes this year?
St. Louis: still have one of the most explosive offenses in the league, but can they stop anyone? How many shootouts can they win?
Arizona: This team is definitely moving in the right direction, but are their defensive and offensive lines good enough to carry this team to respectability?
I think the Hawks improved enough on D and are healthy enough on O to put together one last run and the other three teams are still a year away. Will be fun to see how this plays out.
2.
Three other things that I look forward to every NFL off season: 1) The combine, 2) fantasy football mock drafts in June, and 3) A touching interview with Brett Favre from his ranch in bumblefuck Mississippi when he sits on a tractor and wonders if he still has enough left. I’m fully entrenched in the “Brett Favre should play as long as he wants” camp, I know a lot of people aren’t but I love Brett and I hope he plays five more years. There isn’t a better QB to have miked up, root for and gamble against.
3.
I think the wheels fall off the Bears bus this year. Too much Rex and way too much Cedric Benson. Two signs that your team is going to have a rough season: 1) your QB sucks and everyone knows he sucks including him. Bonus points here if he looks like a nine year old who just pissed himself on the back of the yellow bus. 2) The starting RB is the most hated player on the team. Never a good idea to be a self serving asshole when your position relies on having 9 other people block as hard as they can for you on every play. I smell nothing but trouble here.
1.
The NFC West is the toughest division to predict so far, all four teams have tons of potential; all four teams have serious doubts.
Seattle: still the most talented team from top to bottom, but are they too old?
San Francisco: have made major strides last two years and had a great off season, but are the young guys ready to take this to the next level? Can they handle the pressure of going from perpetual underdog to the team everyone likes this year?
St. Louis: still have one of the most explosive offenses in the league, but can they stop anyone? How many shootouts can they win?
Arizona: This team is definitely moving in the right direction, but are their defensive and offensive lines good enough to carry this team to respectability?
I think the Hawks improved enough on D and are healthy enough on O to put together one last run and the other three teams are still a year away. Will be fun to see how this plays out.
2.
Three other things that I look forward to every NFL off season: 1) The combine, 2) fantasy football mock drafts in June, and 3) A touching interview with Brett Favre from his ranch in bumblefuck Mississippi when he sits on a tractor and wonders if he still has enough left. I’m fully entrenched in the “Brett Favre should play as long as he wants” camp, I know a lot of people aren’t but I love Brett and I hope he plays five more years. There isn’t a better QB to have miked up, root for and gamble against.
3.
I think the wheels fall off the Bears bus this year. Too much Rex and way too much Cedric Benson. Two signs that your team is going to have a rough season: 1) your QB sucks and everyone knows he sucks including him. Bonus points here if he looks like a nine year old who just pissed himself on the back of the yellow bus. 2) The starting RB is the most hated player on the team. Never a good idea to be a self serving asshole when your position relies on having 9 other people block as hard as they can for you on every play. I smell nothing but trouble here.
4.
Look, I like Jake Delhomme, he’s fearless, tough, emotional, an everyman made good. A lot to like about Jake D. I just can’t get past one point: he fucking sucks. I’m sorry Jake fans but he’s awful. Add the Panthers to the list of teams that should’ve taken Brady Quinn last year. The Panthers, even with all that talent, including the top WR and DE in the league will be perpetually 8-8 until a change is made under center.
5.
Two teams I love this year: Dallas and Green Bay.
Dallas: if Tony Romo can get his head out of Carrie Underwood’s Underwear (and he better be straight with her or say good-bye to his pretty little 4 wheel drive) long enough to read his playbook their offense will be good, not crazy good but good enough. The real breakthrough this year is the defense. Parcells is a total devotee to the 4-3 even when he had the absolute perfect 3-4 defense at his fingertips. Wade Phillips does have a jerk off face, no doubt about that, but he’s the master of the 3-4 and that D will be in the top 3 this year – guaranteed.
Go Pack Go: I think this is more of a testament to how bad their division is than how much better Green Bay is this year. But they still have Favre, added a lot of weapons on offense (I bet Brandon Jackson and James Jones both finish in the top 15 in rookie of the year votes) and the D is underrated and raw. I think Favre leads them back to playoffs, they’ll fly in a tractor for him to sit on in his pre-game interview and then the Pack will lose by 30. Good times.
6.
Two teams I hate this year: New York and Minnesota.
Giants: Note to owners, general manager and VPs of operations everywhere: everyone hates Tom Coughlin. He may be good for 9 wins, he may get you to the playoffs, and he might even get a career year out of that lousy investment you made a few years back, but guess what? Football is an emotional game and when your players hate the coach they won’t play as hard, bottom line. The era of the rah rah, bigger than life, yell until their eyeballs pop out of their heads coaches is gone. Dead. Buried somewhere in the Tuna’s fat rolls. I know the old school football guys hate to admit this but the Tony Dungys, Lovie Smiths, Andy Reids and Mike Nolans of the world are the future. Hire and fire accordingly.
Vikings: Great offensive line, absolutely killer defensive line, two great running backs including Adrian Peterson who runs like he’s carrying a bottle of antidote to his poisoned mother. But the WRs are fucking dog shit and the QB couldn’t start for 100 out of 116 college teams. Yes, he’s that bad. When the Falcons and Chiefs look at your QB situation and give you one of those “we’re so sorry” nods, it might be time to go in a different direction. Note to Vikings front office: SIGN BYRON LEFTWICH RIGHT NOW!!!! Put Leftwich on this team (and no, Leftwich is not the answer, but he’s like a salami sandwich that’s been left in the fridge a day too long, where Tavraris Jackson is like a room filled with sasquatch diarrhea that has been shut, air tight for three months.) and the Vikes win 8 games maybe 9, with Jackson they’ll crawl to 3.
7.
The Eagles? I have no idea either. The offense will be good it always is, the defense will be good it always is, the coaching staff is solid it always is. Can Donovan and Westbrook play a whole season? Is Kevin Curtis good? Can the D win a few games for them? Let’s call them 10-6 to be safe.
8.
Is there a more intriguing team in the NFL than the Falcons? Think about it, they’ve been souring on Vick for a few years anyway, starting to wonder if a quarterback with his style could ever win a super bowl. However, he was a fan favorite and the best selling jersey in the NFL, you can’t bench someone with that distinction. Granted, the Falcons would rather have Schaub at the helm than Captain D-Bag, but this will still be an interesting little experiment, huh? I still think they suck this year, but at the same time they have major sleeper potential too.
9.
5 players to watch:
1) Rex Grossman, Bears: is he good and just young? Will he always be awful? Is this the year he goes through puberty and starts shaving? Do the Bears give up on him after one of his patented 10-31, 109, 3 picks games?
2) DeMarcus Ware, Cowboys: He’s the Shawne Merriman in Wade’s 3-4, how good can he be? He had 11.5 sacks last year playing as slightly mismatched DE , what can do as an OLB in the 3-4? 13 sacks? 15? 18?
3) Jon Gruden and Jeff Garcia, Tampa Bay: is this going to work? Can Gruden hook one more old QB to his rejuvenation machine? Gruden and “genius” and Garcia and “game changer” haven’t been used in the same sentences in a long, long time. Is this the year? Does Gruden get fired if they post another 6-10? All interesting questions.
4) Gregg Williams, Redskins: the highest paid D coordinator in the league basically shit in his hand and rubbed it on his face 16 games in a row last year. Has he completely lost his mojo? How can a team with that much talent only have 20 sacks and 6 picks? Seems kind of impossible, doesn’t it? Can he keep his own shit off his face this year?
5) Eli Manning, Giants: He’s on this list ever year, b/c no one knows what to make of him. Remember when he was traded to the Giants and the common reaction was, “perfect place for him, unlike Peyton, Eli loves the spotlight.” All together now: huh? Peyton is on TV every nine seconds and Eli has been sulking around NY, throwing crippling, game ending picks for three years straight. Is this the year he puts it all together? Do his teammates turn on him?
10.
The NFC sucks. The 6th best team in the AFC, Pittsburgh in my opinion, would easily be the 2nd or 3rd best team in the NFC. Another crappy Super Bowl on the way.
Look, I like Jake Delhomme, he’s fearless, tough, emotional, an everyman made good. A lot to like about Jake D. I just can’t get past one point: he fucking sucks. I’m sorry Jake fans but he’s awful. Add the Panthers to the list of teams that should’ve taken Brady Quinn last year. The Panthers, even with all that talent, including the top WR and DE in the league will be perpetually 8-8 until a change is made under center.
5.
Two teams I love this year: Dallas and Green Bay.
Dallas: if Tony Romo can get his head out of Carrie Underwood’s Underwear (and he better be straight with her or say good-bye to his pretty little 4 wheel drive) long enough to read his playbook their offense will be good, not crazy good but good enough. The real breakthrough this year is the defense. Parcells is a total devotee to the 4-3 even when he had the absolute perfect 3-4 defense at his fingertips. Wade Phillips does have a jerk off face, no doubt about that, but he’s the master of the 3-4 and that D will be in the top 3 this year – guaranteed.
Go Pack Go: I think this is more of a testament to how bad their division is than how much better Green Bay is this year. But they still have Favre, added a lot of weapons on offense (I bet Brandon Jackson and James Jones both finish in the top 15 in rookie of the year votes) and the D is underrated and raw. I think Favre leads them back to playoffs, they’ll fly in a tractor for him to sit on in his pre-game interview and then the Pack will lose by 30. Good times.
6.
Two teams I hate this year: New York and Minnesota.
Giants: Note to owners, general manager and VPs of operations everywhere: everyone hates Tom Coughlin. He may be good for 9 wins, he may get you to the playoffs, and he might even get a career year out of that lousy investment you made a few years back, but guess what? Football is an emotional game and when your players hate the coach they won’t play as hard, bottom line. The era of the rah rah, bigger than life, yell until their eyeballs pop out of their heads coaches is gone. Dead. Buried somewhere in the Tuna’s fat rolls. I know the old school football guys hate to admit this but the Tony Dungys, Lovie Smiths, Andy Reids and Mike Nolans of the world are the future. Hire and fire accordingly.
Vikings: Great offensive line, absolutely killer defensive line, two great running backs including Adrian Peterson who runs like he’s carrying a bottle of antidote to his poisoned mother. But the WRs are fucking dog shit and the QB couldn’t start for 100 out of 116 college teams. Yes, he’s that bad. When the Falcons and Chiefs look at your QB situation and give you one of those “we’re so sorry” nods, it might be time to go in a different direction. Note to Vikings front office: SIGN BYRON LEFTWICH RIGHT NOW!!!! Put Leftwich on this team (and no, Leftwich is not the answer, but he’s like a salami sandwich that’s been left in the fridge a day too long, where Tavraris Jackson is like a room filled with sasquatch diarrhea that has been shut, air tight for three months.) and the Vikes win 8 games maybe 9, with Jackson they’ll crawl to 3.
7.
The Eagles? I have no idea either. The offense will be good it always is, the defense will be good it always is, the coaching staff is solid it always is. Can Donovan and Westbrook play a whole season? Is Kevin Curtis good? Can the D win a few games for them? Let’s call them 10-6 to be safe.
8.
Is there a more intriguing team in the NFL than the Falcons? Think about it, they’ve been souring on Vick for a few years anyway, starting to wonder if a quarterback with his style could ever win a super bowl. However, he was a fan favorite and the best selling jersey in the NFL, you can’t bench someone with that distinction. Granted, the Falcons would rather have Schaub at the helm than Captain D-Bag, but this will still be an interesting little experiment, huh? I still think they suck this year, but at the same time they have major sleeper potential too.
9.
5 players to watch:
1) Rex Grossman, Bears: is he good and just young? Will he always be awful? Is this the year he goes through puberty and starts shaving? Do the Bears give up on him after one of his patented 10-31, 109, 3 picks games?
2) DeMarcus Ware, Cowboys: He’s the Shawne Merriman in Wade’s 3-4, how good can he be? He had 11.5 sacks last year playing as slightly mismatched DE , what can do as an OLB in the 3-4? 13 sacks? 15? 18?
3) Jon Gruden and Jeff Garcia, Tampa Bay: is this going to work? Can Gruden hook one more old QB to his rejuvenation machine? Gruden and “genius” and Garcia and “game changer” haven’t been used in the same sentences in a long, long time. Is this the year? Does Gruden get fired if they post another 6-10? All interesting questions.
4) Gregg Williams, Redskins: the highest paid D coordinator in the league basically shit in his hand and rubbed it on his face 16 games in a row last year. Has he completely lost his mojo? How can a team with that much talent only have 20 sacks and 6 picks? Seems kind of impossible, doesn’t it? Can he keep his own shit off his face this year?
5) Eli Manning, Giants: He’s on this list ever year, b/c no one knows what to make of him. Remember when he was traded to the Giants and the common reaction was, “perfect place for him, unlike Peyton, Eli loves the spotlight.” All together now: huh? Peyton is on TV every nine seconds and Eli has been sulking around NY, throwing crippling, game ending picks for three years straight. Is this the year he puts it all together? Do his teammates turn on him?
10.
The NFC sucks. The 6th best team in the AFC, Pittsburgh in my opinion, would easily be the 2nd or 3rd best team in the NFC. Another crappy Super Bowl on the way.
Box Office Prediction: 9/7/07
1.
Movie: 3:10 to Yuma
Prediction: $17 million
2.
Movie: Halloween
Prediction: $13.5 million
3.
Movie: Superbad
Prediction: $9 million
4.
Movie: Shoot ‘Em Up
Prediction: $7.5 million
5.
Movie: Bourne 3
Prediction: $7 million
6.
Movie: Balls of Fury
Prediction: $5 million
7.
Movie: Brothers Solomon
Prediction: $5 million
*Every Friday and Monday Apples and Moustaches predicts and publishes box office returns. Jericho Royall bases all of his predictions on his lifelong fascination with bad movies and stupid people and how the combination of the two directly affects the weekly box office. Apples and Moustaches Box Office Report, (aka AMBOR): Because it’s pretty incredible how much the bottom line is affected by people who can’t spell the bottom line.
Movie: 3:10 to Yuma
Prediction: $17 million
2.
Movie: Halloween
Prediction: $13.5 million
3.
Movie: Superbad
Prediction: $9 million
4.
Movie: Shoot ‘Em Up
Prediction: $7.5 million
5.
Movie: Bourne 3
Prediction: $7 million
6.
Movie: Balls of Fury
Prediction: $5 million
7.
Movie: Brothers Solomon
Prediction: $5 million
*Every Friday and Monday Apples and Moustaches predicts and publishes box office returns. Jericho Royall bases all of his predictions on his lifelong fascination with bad movies and stupid people and how the combination of the two directly affects the weekly box office. Apples and Moustaches Box Office Report, (aka AMBOR): Because it’s pretty incredible how much the bottom line is affected by people who can’t spell the bottom line.
Tuesday, September 4, 2007
Apples & Moustaches' NFL Preview: The AFC
Includes: AFC Breakdown and 10 random thoughts
AFC East
1. Patriots: 13-3
2. Jets: 8-8
3. Bills: 7-9
4. Dolphins: 5-11
AFC North
1. Ravens: 12-4
2. Steelers: 10-6
3. Bengals: 8-8
4. Browns: 4-12
AFC South
1. Colts: 12-4
2. Jags: 7-9
3. Texans: 6-10
4. Titans: 5-11
AFC West
1. Broncos: 13-3
2. Chargers: 10-6
3. Raiders: 5-11
4. Chiefs: 4-12
Playoff Seeds
1. Patriots
2. Broncos
3. Colts
4. Ravens
5. Chargers
6. Steelers
Wild Card
Ravens over Steelers
Colts over Chargers
Divisional
Ravens over Broncos
Patriots over Colts
AFC Championship
Ravens over Patriots
10 random AFC thoughts
1.
I see the Chargers taking a major step back this year and not because of the “lack of continuity on the coaching staff” that is one of the NFL’s biggest harbingers of doom. Let’s be honest, to win in the NFL you need a multitude of factors to go your way, you need good players and good coaches, but more importantly you need to be in the right place at the right time. You need to draft and sign the right players for your team, play the teams that match up well with your style, in other words you need a lot of luck. And as a head coach, when has Norv Turner ever been in the right place at the right time? Yes we all know Marty’s balls shrivel up to raisins in the playoffs, but he always got the most out of his roster in the regular season. Norv? No. Add in a crazy hard schedule, and I see 4 wins less this year, 10-6 and a wild card.
2.
Three things that I look forward to every NFL off season: 1) Mel Kiper and Mel Kiper’s head, 2) Fantasy football drafts, and 3) An insane interview with Ray Lewis that totally makes me overvalue the Ravens. This year Ray Ray has totally changed his workout regimen and has been eating better and sleeping more. After reading about how the amount of sleep is directly related to muscle recovery time, Ray was sleeping between 12-14 hours this off season and working out at night. Are you kidding me? How tough is Ray Lewis’ sleep?
3.
Something about the Pats feels a little wrong this season. I don’t know why, but all of the money they spent and talent they acquired just feels a little too much like the Yankees this decade. Remember how those great Yankee teams always had a few unsung heroes and once they really opened up the checkbook things started to fall apart? Something about this Pats team is reminiscent of that. Plus, and I know this sounds crazy, but I feel like Belichick is getting bored. I still think they’re one of the top 3 teams in the league, but I don’t think they make the Super Bowl.
4.
What the fuck are the Titans doing? You come on strong at the end of the year, slug your way to an 8-8 finish, finally have you franchise QB and you let your top rusher and top two receivers leave in the off season? Huh? Having Vince Young at the helm and only signing Eric Moulds to your offense is akin to marrying a trophy wife and mandating that she wear sweats at all times. Get Vince some fake tits!
5.
Two teams I love this year: Denver and Pittsburgh.
Denver: their offense will be good, every knows that, but watch out for their D, Jim Bates is the perfect coordinator for that personnel group, I bet both sides of the ball rank in the top 8.
Steelers: Big Ben is back and healthy, the D will rebound, and also, that team really needed new blood. Everything culminated when Cowher won his Super Bowl, that team was dying for a new coach and will play their minds out for Tomlin.
6.
Two teams I hate this year: Jacksonville and Kansas City.
Jags: Jack Del Rio, now this is a guy who should’ve been fired years ago. I know, I know, I like Jack too, but you can’t argue with the fact that his teams underachieve every single year. Yes Leftwich is bad, Garrard is a glorified arena league player and the WRs are a fucking joke, but the offensive and defensive lines are so good that this team should win 10 games every year, no question. I bet Jack gets fired after this year and then the Jags rebound next year and win 12 games (much like the Saints last year who underachieved for years under Jim Haslett.)
Kansas City: Yes, I’ve been watching Hard Knocks. Yes I love Herm Edwards too. The guy is everything about the NFL that I love, but have you seen the talent on this team? Yikes. The O-line, always the strength with this team is horrible, the QB situation is a joke (picking between Huard and Croyle is like deciding whether to shoot yourself in the leg (Huard) and hope you can still walk or in the head (Croyle) and hope you live through it), the D is a year older and slower. Watch, the Chiefs will be even worse than the Raiders, you heard it here first.
7.
The Colts? I have no idea either. The offense will be just as good, maybe better than last year, the defense lost some key guys but their spots are being filled by draft picks that the Colts have been grooming for years. Could they be 14-2? Yes. Could they be 9-7? Yes. Could they win the Super Bowl again? Yes. Could they lose in the first round? Yes. Let’s call them 12-4 to be safe.
8.
Is there a more frustrating team in the NFL than the Bengals? With so many cool players, it’d be kind of awesome to be a Bengals fan, right? But with so many 8-8s, and all the frustrations that come with playing in a loaded division, it would kind of suck to be a Bengals fan, right? The 2001 Ravens D and Marvin Lewis as the genius architect seem like a long time ago, huh? The Bengals are just in the wrong division, they can’t keep up with the Ravens and Steelers physically, can you imagine if they were in the AFC North or West? They’d be 12-4 every year.
9.
5 players to watch:
1) Travis Henry, Denver: the perfect back for Shanahan’s “one cut” system and by far the best back they’ve had since Terrell Davis. Look for 1400 and 13 type numbers, but don’t be surprised by a 1650 and 15 type season.
2) Dante Culpepper, Oakland: Hey, remember this guy? Forget the Miami version, when an egomaniac head coach (Saban) rushed him back before he was ready. Culpepper can still play and even if he never approaches his 2004 numbers again, this guy can still be a top 10 QB. Watch for him to have a 2500 and 18-type year and sign a nice deal to start somewhere in the off season (Jacksonville, Baltimore, Atlanta, Minnesota, Chicago, Kansas City, all possible landing spots and all teams that will be kicking themselves in week 10 b/c they could’ve had this guy for dirt cheap).
3) Chris Henry, Cincinnati and Pacman, Tennessee: the league’s signature dumbasses return in week 9 of the regular season. Can they contribute right away? What week does Henry get picked up in fantasy? Which teammate will Pacman punch first? All interesting questions.
4) Matt Schaub, Houston: can you imagine if he has a great year and leads the Texans to respectability (let’s be respectable first and then worry about the playoffs)? It’ll both revive one team and kill another simultaneously. That’s kind of cool, right?
5) Lane Kiffin, Oakland: Everyone is talking about what an idiot he was for taking this job, especially with USC about to make another run at a national championship. The job has everything you don’t want: marginal talent, bad vibe, crazy owner who might be dead, tough division. But you know what? That sounds like a no lose situation to me. The Raiders have a feisty defense, decent running backs and a pissed off Dante Culpepper, with a few tweaks and a few bounces their way they could be 5-11 or 6-10, which would be monumental after the “I just shit my pants” job Art Shell did last year.
10.
Award predictions (league wide, not just AFC):
Coach of the Year: Mike Holmgren, Seahawks
MVP: Drew Brees
Offensive Player of the Year: Tomlinson
Defensive Player of the Year: Demarcus Ware
Offensive Rookie of the Year: Adrian Peterson
Defensive Rookie of the Year: Patrick Willis
Best Off Season Move: Ravens trading for McGahee
Worst Off Season Move: The Vikings not getting a QB to compete with Tarvaris Jackson
First Coach to get Fired: Tom Coughlin
AFC East
1. Patriots: 13-3
2. Jets: 8-8
3. Bills: 7-9
4. Dolphins: 5-11
AFC North
1. Ravens: 12-4
2. Steelers: 10-6
3. Bengals: 8-8
4. Browns: 4-12
AFC South
1. Colts: 12-4
2. Jags: 7-9
3. Texans: 6-10
4. Titans: 5-11
AFC West
1. Broncos: 13-3
2. Chargers: 10-6
3. Raiders: 5-11
4. Chiefs: 4-12
Playoff Seeds
1. Patriots
2. Broncos
3. Colts
4. Ravens
5. Chargers
6. Steelers
Wild Card
Ravens over Steelers
Colts over Chargers
Divisional
Ravens over Broncos
Patriots over Colts
AFC Championship
Ravens over Patriots
10 random AFC thoughts
1.
I see the Chargers taking a major step back this year and not because of the “lack of continuity on the coaching staff” that is one of the NFL’s biggest harbingers of doom. Let’s be honest, to win in the NFL you need a multitude of factors to go your way, you need good players and good coaches, but more importantly you need to be in the right place at the right time. You need to draft and sign the right players for your team, play the teams that match up well with your style, in other words you need a lot of luck. And as a head coach, when has Norv Turner ever been in the right place at the right time? Yes we all know Marty’s balls shrivel up to raisins in the playoffs, but he always got the most out of his roster in the regular season. Norv? No. Add in a crazy hard schedule, and I see 4 wins less this year, 10-6 and a wild card.
2.
Three things that I look forward to every NFL off season: 1) Mel Kiper and Mel Kiper’s head, 2) Fantasy football drafts, and 3) An insane interview with Ray Lewis that totally makes me overvalue the Ravens. This year Ray Ray has totally changed his workout regimen and has been eating better and sleeping more. After reading about how the amount of sleep is directly related to muscle recovery time, Ray was sleeping between 12-14 hours this off season and working out at night. Are you kidding me? How tough is Ray Lewis’ sleep?
3.
Something about the Pats feels a little wrong this season. I don’t know why, but all of the money they spent and talent they acquired just feels a little too much like the Yankees this decade. Remember how those great Yankee teams always had a few unsung heroes and once they really opened up the checkbook things started to fall apart? Something about this Pats team is reminiscent of that. Plus, and I know this sounds crazy, but I feel like Belichick is getting bored. I still think they’re one of the top 3 teams in the league, but I don’t think they make the Super Bowl.
4.
What the fuck are the Titans doing? You come on strong at the end of the year, slug your way to an 8-8 finish, finally have you franchise QB and you let your top rusher and top two receivers leave in the off season? Huh? Having Vince Young at the helm and only signing Eric Moulds to your offense is akin to marrying a trophy wife and mandating that she wear sweats at all times. Get Vince some fake tits!
5.
Two teams I love this year: Denver and Pittsburgh.
Denver: their offense will be good, every knows that, but watch out for their D, Jim Bates is the perfect coordinator for that personnel group, I bet both sides of the ball rank in the top 8.
Steelers: Big Ben is back and healthy, the D will rebound, and also, that team really needed new blood. Everything culminated when Cowher won his Super Bowl, that team was dying for a new coach and will play their minds out for Tomlin.
6.
Two teams I hate this year: Jacksonville and Kansas City.
Jags: Jack Del Rio, now this is a guy who should’ve been fired years ago. I know, I know, I like Jack too, but you can’t argue with the fact that his teams underachieve every single year. Yes Leftwich is bad, Garrard is a glorified arena league player and the WRs are a fucking joke, but the offensive and defensive lines are so good that this team should win 10 games every year, no question. I bet Jack gets fired after this year and then the Jags rebound next year and win 12 games (much like the Saints last year who underachieved for years under Jim Haslett.)
Kansas City: Yes, I’ve been watching Hard Knocks. Yes I love Herm Edwards too. The guy is everything about the NFL that I love, but have you seen the talent on this team? Yikes. The O-line, always the strength with this team is horrible, the QB situation is a joke (picking between Huard and Croyle is like deciding whether to shoot yourself in the leg (Huard) and hope you can still walk or in the head (Croyle) and hope you live through it), the D is a year older and slower. Watch, the Chiefs will be even worse than the Raiders, you heard it here first.
7.
The Colts? I have no idea either. The offense will be just as good, maybe better than last year, the defense lost some key guys but their spots are being filled by draft picks that the Colts have been grooming for years. Could they be 14-2? Yes. Could they be 9-7? Yes. Could they win the Super Bowl again? Yes. Could they lose in the first round? Yes. Let’s call them 12-4 to be safe.
8.
Is there a more frustrating team in the NFL than the Bengals? With so many cool players, it’d be kind of awesome to be a Bengals fan, right? But with so many 8-8s, and all the frustrations that come with playing in a loaded division, it would kind of suck to be a Bengals fan, right? The 2001 Ravens D and Marvin Lewis as the genius architect seem like a long time ago, huh? The Bengals are just in the wrong division, they can’t keep up with the Ravens and Steelers physically, can you imagine if they were in the AFC North or West? They’d be 12-4 every year.
9.
5 players to watch:
1) Travis Henry, Denver: the perfect back for Shanahan’s “one cut” system and by far the best back they’ve had since Terrell Davis. Look for 1400 and 13 type numbers, but don’t be surprised by a 1650 and 15 type season.
2) Dante Culpepper, Oakland: Hey, remember this guy? Forget the Miami version, when an egomaniac head coach (Saban) rushed him back before he was ready. Culpepper can still play and even if he never approaches his 2004 numbers again, this guy can still be a top 10 QB. Watch for him to have a 2500 and 18-type year and sign a nice deal to start somewhere in the off season (Jacksonville, Baltimore, Atlanta, Minnesota, Chicago, Kansas City, all possible landing spots and all teams that will be kicking themselves in week 10 b/c they could’ve had this guy for dirt cheap).
3) Chris Henry, Cincinnati and Pacman, Tennessee: the league’s signature dumbasses return in week 9 of the regular season. Can they contribute right away? What week does Henry get picked up in fantasy? Which teammate will Pacman punch first? All interesting questions.
4) Matt Schaub, Houston: can you imagine if he has a great year and leads the Texans to respectability (let’s be respectable first and then worry about the playoffs)? It’ll both revive one team and kill another simultaneously. That’s kind of cool, right?
5) Lane Kiffin, Oakland: Everyone is talking about what an idiot he was for taking this job, especially with USC about to make another run at a national championship. The job has everything you don’t want: marginal talent, bad vibe, crazy owner who might be dead, tough division. But you know what? That sounds like a no lose situation to me. The Raiders have a feisty defense, decent running backs and a pissed off Dante Culpepper, with a few tweaks and a few bounces their way they could be 5-11 or 6-10, which would be monumental after the “I just shit my pants” job Art Shell did last year.
10.
Award predictions (league wide, not just AFC):
Coach of the Year: Mike Holmgren, Seahawks
MVP: Drew Brees
Offensive Player of the Year: Tomlinson
Defensive Player of the Year: Demarcus Ware
Offensive Rookie of the Year: Adrian Peterson
Defensive Rookie of the Year: Patrick Willis
Best Off Season Move: Ravens trading for McGahee
Worst Off Season Move: The Vikings not getting a QB to compete with Tarvaris Jackson
First Coach to get Fired: Tom Coughlin
Box Office Results: 8/31/07
1.
Movie: Halloween
Prediction: $16 million
Actual: $26 million (rank 1)
Horror movies = who fucking knows? I looked at some of the other Halloween remakes and tried to average everything out, instead if blows past that and posts the biggest Labor Day Weekend in history.
2.
Movie: Superbad
Prediction: $10.5 million
Actual: $12.5 million (rank 2)
About right.
3.
Movie: Bourne 3
Prediction: $8 million
Actual: $10 million (rank 4)
Welcome to the $200 million club. Mr. Bourne.
4.
Movie: Rush Hour 3
Prediction: $7 million
Actual: $8.5 million (rank 5)
You know, lots of talk about this movie being a flop when it opened due to a big budget ($140 million) and bloated expectations (part 2 made $350 million worldwide), but this movie is still cruising right along with $160 million worldwide – not saying this is a huge hit, but very good chance it makes money.
5.
Movie: Death Sentence
Prediction: $6.5 million
Actual: $4.2 million (rank 8)
Another movie that’s tough to call. Ready for a new box office term? “The Kevin Bacon.” The Kevin Bacon is a movie that is headlined by a career supporting actor. The KB is tough to predict b/c there really isn’t any precedent to use, you can’t use their life time box office numbers b/c those are associated with the stars / directors of the other films, so you guess. In this case I guessed a few million higher than I should have; although it did gave birth to a new term and that’s always a good thing.
6.
Movie: Bean
Prediction: $5 million
Actual: $6 million (rank 6)
Who cares.
7.
Movie: WAR
Prediction: $4.5 million
Actual: $4.1 million (rank 9)
WAR, what’s it good for? Absolutely nothing, say it again.
8.
Movie: Balls of Fury
Prediction: N/A
Actual: $11 million (rank 3)
I ignored this movie on purpose.
9.
Movie: Nanny Diaries
Prediction: N/A
Actual: $5 million (rank 7)
Another movie that is begging to be remade as NC-17? Can we please get Scarlett a coke problem or something? Time to let the big dogs out to play!
Movie: Halloween
Prediction: $16 million
Actual: $26 million (rank 1)
Horror movies = who fucking knows? I looked at some of the other Halloween remakes and tried to average everything out, instead if blows past that and posts the biggest Labor Day Weekend in history.
2.
Movie: Superbad
Prediction: $10.5 million
Actual: $12.5 million (rank 2)
About right.
3.
Movie: Bourne 3
Prediction: $8 million
Actual: $10 million (rank 4)
Welcome to the $200 million club. Mr. Bourne.
4.
Movie: Rush Hour 3
Prediction: $7 million
Actual: $8.5 million (rank 5)
You know, lots of talk about this movie being a flop when it opened due to a big budget ($140 million) and bloated expectations (part 2 made $350 million worldwide), but this movie is still cruising right along with $160 million worldwide – not saying this is a huge hit, but very good chance it makes money.
5.
Movie: Death Sentence
Prediction: $6.5 million
Actual: $4.2 million (rank 8)
Another movie that’s tough to call. Ready for a new box office term? “The Kevin Bacon.” The Kevin Bacon is a movie that is headlined by a career supporting actor. The KB is tough to predict b/c there really isn’t any precedent to use, you can’t use their life time box office numbers b/c those are associated with the stars / directors of the other films, so you guess. In this case I guessed a few million higher than I should have; although it did gave birth to a new term and that’s always a good thing.
6.
Movie: Bean
Prediction: $5 million
Actual: $6 million (rank 6)
Who cares.
7.
Movie: WAR
Prediction: $4.5 million
Actual: $4.1 million (rank 9)
WAR, what’s it good for? Absolutely nothing, say it again.
8.
Movie: Balls of Fury
Prediction: N/A
Actual: $11 million (rank 3)
I ignored this movie on purpose.
9.
Movie: Nanny Diaries
Prediction: N/A
Actual: $5 million (rank 7)
Another movie that is begging to be remade as NC-17? Can we please get Scarlett a coke problem or something? Time to let the big dogs out to play!
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